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Correlation…
…does not always equal causation, but sometimes the data fits the inference.
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The Wonderful Warning of OZ
The global supply chain is pretty well established at this point, particularly in the years since the obvious dollar devaluation (Y2K and forward). Commodity countries like the BRICs (South Africa only...
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China Confirms Australia and the Global Chain
The HSBC/Markit PMI for China fell back below 50 for the first time in seven months. This rebound has been relatively minor, more like an absence of contraction than a surge in manufacturing activity....
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Autos and Normalization
If there has been one consistent source of strength in the US economy it has been automobile manufacturing and sales. However, even that is a bit of a misdirection since the growth in autos since 2009...
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Emerging Markets Re-emerge
Earlier in January, despite the auspices of assurances from the Banco do Brasil, the Brazilian government auctioned its newest 10-year government bond (NTN-F) at a record high yield. Almost immediately...
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Why JPY
If you haven’t discerned to this point, funding markets are incredibly complex and intricately linked across innumerable network nodes that make precise estimations, even analysis, equally difficult...
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Global GDP Does Not Look Like Recovery
The surge in Japanese GDP in the first quarter has given back some cautious optimism that eroded significantly in the fourth quarter of last year. The increase in activity was not unexpected, only the...
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What’s Left After the Currency Circus Leaves Town?
The running narrative all over the developed world is temporary factors. In the US it is weather-related, while Europe is seized by not enough euphoria (more on that later), and Japan by the tax...
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TNT Attrition
There was a bit of a stir caused by Dutch logistics firm, TNT Express. The company has been expressing caution, if not downright pessimism about its prospects due to economic considerations. Today, it...
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Inarguable End To Decoupling
Despite all domestic reports to the contrary, the rest of the world is having a very difficult time seeing any recovery yet in the United States economy. With recent trade data in hand, it is not...
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From Unqualified ‘Savior’ To Afterthought In Only Five Months
China’s figures last week were not “helpful” to the “global growth” narrative, and now Japan and Europe have contributed their share of turning sentiment. It seems as if credit markets might actually...
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Supply Indeed
After months of hearing about how the fracking “miracle” is totally, fully and comprehensively responsible for the drop in oil prices there is finally penetrating reality. After the continued...
View ArticleLogical Fallacy Under The Coming Neo-Keynes Orientation
As distasteful as it can be, there will be, I believe, a necessary condition whereby closer examination of Paul Krugman’s writings and rantings is fruitful. The rise of Keynesian doctrine, more...
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China’s Communists Commit To More Of A Market Approach Than The ‘Free World’
There has been nothing good out of China in the past few months, which is why the call for more action by the PBOC has only grown. Despite what are really clear intentions, economists continue to look...
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The Year of Divergences That Weren’t
The Caracas Stock Exchange Index only gained 44% this year, a far less intense surge than the 452% increase in 2013. Of course, not even in Venezuela do stocks travel in a straight line forever, as the...
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First Corporate America, Now China
The amount of inconsistency is certainly consistent when viewing the trouble mainstream analysis has with trying to exclude the possibility of economic forces from explaining why things are the way...
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Multi-dimensional Navigation of Systemic ‘Dollar’ Alteration
Under the traditional formula for viewing currency movements, a rising currency is believed to be a huge impediment for economic expansion as exports “become relatively more expensive” against trading...
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Smoothing Global Growth through Regionally Counter Cyclical Credit
“While most investors were preoccupied with deflation, related to last year’s plunge in oil prices, and the seemingly hopelessness of quantitative easing, a stealth recovery in private sector global...
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China and US, Producer Prices Very Much Agree
The PPI estimate for China was not a fifth straight -5.9%, instead the estimate for January 2016 was -5.3%; not appreciably different but at least not blatantly sticking with a single number. China’s...
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What Actually Is Transitory
The end of the week finds the initial release of “flash” PMI readings across much of the world. In what will be surprising only to economists and policymakers, the commonality is “slowing.” It is never...
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